Monday, April 12, 2010

Plenary session 2: Economics of Scholarly Information

Ted Bergstrom
Big Deals and the Terrible Fix

Ted started by describing librarians' “shopping problems"
  • Delegation: Librarians are making choices for consumers who aren't spending their own money – 'the university' pays
  • Unreliable signals: Arguments for subscriptions are fervid but not always reliable
  • Complexity: Libraries face all or nothing complex deals, and when there are large numbers of titles covering 100+ disciplines, who can say what it's worth?
  • Monopoly: Journals represent price inelastic demand, i.e. demand doesn't vary according to price (much like the prescription drug industry)

The first big deals entailed a publisher (roughly speaking) working out the library's current spend, multiplying by a factor, and then offering e-access to all content in addition to the print for existing subscriptions.

How effective was this? Very, since the publisher knows that the library is willing to pay at least same as they did for their paper subscriptions, and giving them additional content costs the publisher nothing. Bundling works well from a seller's perspective: demand for bundles varies less than individual titles, and deters entry to the market by making it hard to add new competing journals. And of course, by the time the deal expires, the faculty are addicted to online access so the library has to negotiate a new deal.

Ted then gave the audience an economic prescription: namely, if you want to allocate resources efficiently, use a price system where users pay for what they get out of their own money, and therefore economise, ie a pay per view model. If informed users spend their own money on downloads, demand becomes more price elastic, monopolists are forced to cut prices, and authors prefer to publish in reasonably priced journals in order to get more readers.

Does it work for academics? Ask yourself: who else is better placed to decide value of article access?

Currently there's a big discrepancy between the average cost of a non-profit and for-profit article. The competition prediction suggests that if users pay, it would drive down prices to just over cost-price. There could be limited role of central purchase, where libraries could subscribe to journals which cost no more than 1.5 times as much as the average non-profit journals and allow their users free access.

What can one library do?
  • Consider dropping big deal subscriptions to overpriced journals
  • Maintain subscriptions to reasonably priced journals, at zero cost to end users
  • Subsidise user-pays models (not to their full cost though)


Marybeth Manning
Reset: a publisher's response to the changing economy

SPIE have taken the “unusual” step of reducing institutional subscription prices to their Digital Library by 10%, because they believed there would be sustained impact on scholarly publishing from changing publishing models and economic crises.

SPIE are a not for profit international society for optics and photonics: their Digital Library contains journals, conference proceedings and books. The subscription model is tiered (with different criteria for academic, government and corporate customers) and was originally based on print pricing.

Their objective is optimal dissemination of information, but it must be sustainable: a balance of reach and revenues. SPIE decided that their tier model was acceptable and understood, but penalised smaller institutions or large institutions with few relevant programmes. Corporations preferred price per use, and overall the cost per use for low tiers too high. Combined with environmental factors (the global economic crisis) they decided on overall price reductions on full DL subscriptions and topical segments (not including consortia or single subscriptions). They also added a 5th tier for the smallest organisations, and allowed introductory discounts to enable institutions to test interest. So far renewal levels have stayed strong, and they have good levels of new business, especially in lower tiers.

Does it apply to wider community?
SPIE wanted to shift their business model rather than have it shifted for them by factors outside their control, and believe that market growth and user demand will support reduced prices in future. They “want to be seen as part of the solution not the problem”.

But does this affect anything when big deals/mega publishers are so dominant? If libraries won't vote with their feet (or with their £) then who is to blame?

Carol Tenopir
University investments in the library: measuring the return

How does the library demonstrate its value to the university and its scholarship?
How can value be measured?
  • implicit value – downloads, usage
  • explicit value – testimonials, researchers' purpose in using library services
  • derived values – Return on Investment (ROI)

Derived measures: A way to show that the library contributes to the income generating activity of the university ie for every £ spent on the library, the university received £ in return. One way is to look at money spent on collections and then money coming back in grants.

Grant cycle => conduct research – write articles – write reports and proposals – obtain grants – conduct research etc. Libraries have already been connected to all steps aside from obtaining grants: this is key unknown.

University of Illinois did a phase 1 study funded by Elsevier which found $4.38 grant income for each $1 invested in the library (based on the % of faculty who rated citations in proposals as important in their success x % of proposals funded/library budget). Their findings have been published in a white paper.

Phase 2 expanded the methodology from phase 1 across 8 institutions in 8 countries – does it still apply? (But remember that ROI numbers do not tell the full story)
Library ROIs fell into three distinct tiers:
  • STM research institutions: up to 15.5 to 1
  • Research/teaching institutions STM/Humanities/Social Sciences: up to 3.4 to 1 (most common category)
  • Research and teaching all disciplines, not so much emphasis on external funding: less than 1 to 1
The project also did surveys of faculty about importance of citations and amount of reading, collected comments from faculty on use and importance of e-collections, and did interviews with university administration. They found lots of positive comments about value of e-resources in research, teaching, scholarship eg facilitates interdisciplinary work, better productivity.

Universities' administration staff also said they wanted the library to help them:
  • attract/retain outstanding faculty (studies have shown a relationship between reading more library resources, publishing more, getting more grants: typical profile of 'star' faculty members)
  • foster innovative research (bearing in mind that the number of articles cited will be much lower than those read)
  • build research reputation of institution (some cases have shown positive relationship between library funding and amount of successful grants)
  • promote seamless integration of the library with institutional research activities (some studies have shown a positive relationship between article downloads and research productivity)

Phase 3 (LibValue project) will be looking at more complex areas of library's value to teaching/learning, and social/professional activities. ARL will be involved in disseminating tools and measures. They recognise that they also need to look at new scholarly endeavours – e-science, collaborative scholarship, institutional repositories.

Conclusion
  • It's possible to tie library e-collections to faculty productivity
  • Libraries help generate grants income
  • ROI for grants varies according to the mission and location of university
  • Value can be measured in many ways

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Monday, April 07, 2008

Is sustainability really what we're after - Kevin Guthrie, Ithaka

Kevin Guthrie starts with a metaphor about pilot fish.

Q: If you're a pilot fish how fast must you swim?
A: Faster than a shark.

Q: How fast must you swim to find your next meal?
A: Faster than other pilot fish

Academic publishing is the shark apparently. We are the pilot fish.

Kevin highlights that digitisation changes and increases the symbiosis between "shark" and "pilot fish". Growth online is imense and speed of growth is staggering. YouTube was founded, grown and sold on within 2 years and users from none to 48 million in that time. This is a huge seachange.

The life cycle hasn't just shortened. Innovation adds layers - today's "value added" is tomorrows commodity. Things evolve so quickly and you must always be better than you were before (giving the example of evolution of videos through to online rental to video on demand in 10-2o years).

Kevin was previously with JSTOR at their birth and now works for a private organisation called Ithaka. JSTOR found it difficult to digitise at first but now publishers are fully onboard and involved.

Newspapers as Example
Traditionally there was protection for newspapers - geographical, advertising, media-specific view (not competing with other mediums). They relied on subscriptions and advertising (classified - thus local - advertising was key income). Even as challenges and benefits of digital production and distribution came through in the 1990's (and profits went up) the digital business started to become a threat to traditional print business.

What's been happening now is that profit margins decline. Stock prices falling 42% in 2007. Worst decline in 50 years. Even online advertising showing signs of slow down. Market place is shrinking, fewer titles, shrinking of journalist jobs (some moving online, some just ditched). Examples from multiple papers shrinking staff. The Guardian, as a contrasting example, offer multimedia training to journalists and will not cut staff who will transition to digital.

What happened?
Competition for audience - global market and competition from ALL news media. Indeed the Virginia Tech incident was actually reported best by Wikipedia - they absorbed new information most quickly. Enormous competition for advertising budgets and classified ads killed by eBay, CraigsList etc. Many papers (e.g. New York Times) are now going free rather than subscription online services (though others retain subscription is market can support - e.g. Wall Street Journal). Some serious lack of sustainability here though as all start ups seek advertising revenues. Resources of national papers stressed. By contrast small community papers are doing better as they have local information and news more relavent to their readers than cash-strapped national wire stories.

Kevin suggests a similar thing is going on in scholarly communication. Preprints and websites compete with journals. Open Access crosses territory with sustainable economic models. Consolidation is becoming key in newspaper world as it will in other digital areas. Libraries have one serious strategic advantage in their local knowledge. Niche targetted areas of knowledge also have advantages - in newspaper and libary worlds.

Kevin recommends a presentation on the similarities between newspapers and libraries:
http://www.slideshare.net/naypinya/what-rupert-would-tell-the-dlf/

Crisis of Wake-up Call?
Strategic change is required. It is very hard to implement though and academic areas are notoriously resistent to strategic change and reallocation of resources.

Scholarly Publishers
Historically they were insulated, walled search areas etc. Google is changing things substantially and it is now a very different commercial environment. Dissemination and intermediaries were important. Discoverability was by A&I databases and publisher marketing.

It is now the case that faculty do much of the selection more directly. Distribution quite different and threatened by the web. "Credentialing" is really the only competitive advantage of traditional serials brands - publishing in key journals still influences tenureship etc. This has not really changed.

Scholarly publishing must identify it's core values and explore new ways that the internet can enhance them.

What is needed so that new technologies can help to strengthen the core, not weaken it?
  • Outsourcing - where some functionality is best taken outside organisations core work.
  • Willingness to experiment and invest, not retrench and protect.
  • Letting go of long-held attitudes and beliefs in what the situation was, in favour of moving to what it will be.
  • Mindset shift to an ongoing focus on users and their needs and their preferences (not research project/funding drivers of content) - this will help make a much more sustainable model.
  • Compromise
  • Unprecedented industry-wide collaboration

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